Issued at 342 AM PST Mon Feb 16 2026 (Today and tonight)
A long wave trough remains located over the west coast (north hemispheric pattern remains in winter mode, active with ~ 7 long wave troughs). Within the west coast long wave trough there is a weakening, vertically stacked surface to 500 mb low pressure center (occluded low pressure) offshore ~ 350 miles west of Santa Cruz. However, there is a secondary low pressure center continuing to develop this morning, it`s currently 250 miles south of Santa Cruz and moving mainly northward. The second low will continue to bring rain and wind to our area today. A strengthening convergence of differing air masses will cause a strengthening of the front (frontogenesis) at 850 mb and 700 mb today, strengthening surface low pressure included in this process all will steepen the pressure gradients and winds. 200 mb jet stream winds are already at the base and forward of the larger scale trough, thus the development window of the second low will be short i.e. through late morning to early afternoon and mainly focused over the Central Coast before the low takes a more eastward motion. Precipitable water with the low peaks today between 0.75" and 0.80" which is near the 90th percentile for the time of year. Ouput from numerical weather prediction has varied as to how strong winds may get within this narrow window of time today; it`s a good idea to be on the lookout for suddenly gusty winds today, including a wind shift to westerly and gusty later on today. A wind advisory remains in effect over the north Central Coast from 8 am . .
